cogTRADER

After The Close - 12.03.2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks turned solidly higher in another roller-coaster ride of a day on Wednesday, after data showing a large surge in mortgage refinancing bolstered shares of financial and consumer discretionary companies.

NEW YORK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose for a second day on Wednesday in choppy trading as shares of Coke and other companies that hold up well in a recession gained following disappointing economic data and corporate outlooks.

Market Snapshot

Market Overview

After Hours Report

Today’s Movers and Shakers

In Play

Market Internals

Advances/Declines

SNPS Reports Q4 $0.43 v $0.38e, R $353M v $351.1Me

ARO Reports Q3 $0.63 v $0.62e, R $482.0M v $482.7Me, Nov SSS -5% v -2.3%e
- Guides Q4 $0.84-0.90 v $0.98e.

HOTT Reports Nov SSS +6.5% v -1.6%e

WSJ: US Treasury considering plan to stop housing prices from falling further, through lowering mortgage rates with FNM and FRE
- The plan could reduce rates for newly issued loans to as low as 4.5%

*FED’S BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMY WEAKENED ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS IN SINCE EARLY OCT, manufacturing declined in most districts, lending contracted, loans terms tighter during period

Fed’s Lacker: Reasonable to expect 2009 recovery, must monitor inflation, Govt support risks destabilizing markets
- Credit markets hurt more now by lack of worthy borrowers than lack of credit, housing will not hurt the US as much in 2009

FIG Temporarily halts redemptions from Drawbridge Global Macro funds - filing

SLB FY08 profit to be below estimates (currently at $4.76e), citing economic slowdown, oil and gas exploration and production spending
- CEO: “We have been consistent in our view that our results would be affected in the event of a severe global economic downturn, which we are now facing,’

NXY London Times reports Total pulls out of possible C$15.8B acquisition deal due to ‘risky’ environment

HI Guides FY09 EPS $1.73-1.85 v $1.71e, Rev $695-710M v $678.2Me

DLM Reports Q2 $0.14 v $0.12e, R $901M v $905.0Me
- Guides FY09 EPS toward the midpoint $0.58-0.62 v $0.57e., Rev +8-10% (implying $3.46-3.52B v $3.52Be)

MM – The Cognizant Trader


Filed in DECEMBER, NOVEMBER

Prelude To The Bell - 12.03.2008

SPY closed yesterday at 85.27 and is currently trading sharply lower.

OIH closed yesterday at 73.75 and is currently trading sharply lower.

Crude Oil Report at 10:35AM

FCX reports a reduction in production and sales in 2009 and 2010, suspends common stock dividends citing weak market conditions, and is trading sharply lower

X to idle 3 plants in the next several weeks affecting 3,500 workers, and is trading sharply lower

Gapping up:

CEG +22.11%, ETP +5.43%, O +4.98%, GVA +3.54%

Gapping down:

FCX -15.54%, LYG -15.43%, RTP -15.41%, BCS -11.35%, CS -10.05%

MM – The Cognizant Trader

Filed in DECEMBER

Stocks To Keep Your Eye On - 12.03.2008

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in December gained 33.20, or 4.1 percent, to 849. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 293, or 3.6 percent, to 8,432. Nasdaq-100 Index futures climbed 38.50, or 3.5 percent, to 1,133.

Automakers: U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she believes the federal government will step in to aid domestic automakers because bankruptcy is “not an option.”

General Motors Corp. (GM:US) gained 5.7 percent to $4.85 in regular trading while Ford Motor Co. (F:US) added 5.9 percent to $2.70.

Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ:US): The world’s largest winemaker said it settled some foreign-currency hedges, gaining about $50 million after taxes to pay down debt. The stock rose 3.1 percent to $12.17 in regular trading.

Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT:US): The world’s largest defense company won a contract valued at as much as $1.09 billion to build the next series of weather satellites for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The stock rose 3.6 percent to $73.63 in regular trading.

Motorola Inc. (MOT:US): The mobile-phone maker may have its credit rating lowered by Moody’s Investors Service because of the company’s “prolonged” decline in performance amid the global financial crisis. The stock rose 3.9 percent to $4.27 in regular trading.

OmniVision Technologies Inc. (OVTI:US) tumbled 69 cents, or 13 percent, to $4.79 in trading after the official close of exchanges. The maker of image sensors for camera phones forecast an unexpected loss and revenue that trails analysts’ estimates for the third quarter ending in January.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

Watch DEE for long breakouts.
Watch XEC, BEC, MRO, GD, TD for short breakdowns.

HI Guides FY09 EPS $1.73-1.85 v $1.71e, Rev $695-710M v $678.2Me

DLM Reports Q2 $0.14 v $0.12e, R $901M v $905.0Me
- Guides FY09 EPS toward the midpoint $0.58-0.62 v $0.57e., Rev +8-10% (implying $3.46-3.52B v $3.52Be)

GE Price Target lowered to $18 from $22 at Deutsche Bank, maintains hold rating

FCX Cutting copper production; suspends $2 annual dividend
- Co revised operating plans in response to the recent sharp decline in copper and molybdenum prices to incorporate reduced production levels, operating and administrative costs, exploration costs and capital expenditures.
- Reduction in Copper Production and Sales of 200M pounds (5%) in 2009e and 500M pounds (11%) in 2010e vs prior guidance

(GE) German VDA: 2009 passenger car market to decline to the lowest level since the German reunification in 1990
- Sees production and export of passenger cars in Germany to decline significantly in 2009

(CH) Chinese Cabinet announces plans to ensure liquidity by using FX and interest rates

TSM CEO: Lowers 2009 CAPEX citing economic weakness, manufacturing department will take an unpaid leave in December

MM – The Cognizant Trader

Filed in DECEMBER

Morning Preview - 12.03.2008

LONDON (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock futures pointed to a weaker start Wednesday, with a warning from Research In Motion and expectations of further gloomy economic indicators casting a negative spell.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Wednesday’s session are Aeropostale Inc., Del Monte Foods Co., and Casey’s General Stores Inc.

NEW YORK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell on Wednesday after Research In Motion Ltd , a technology bellwether, slashed its outlook, compounding investors’ fears about the deepening economic slump.

NEW YORK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Adding to the gloom, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc its dividend payouts, cut its 2009 capital expenditure budget and slashed its copper output.

Pre-market Indications

Earnings

Earnings Guidance

Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

Economic Numbers

Economic Preview/Calendar

IPOs

Splits

MM – The Cognizant Trader

Filed in DECEMBER

After The Close - 12.02.2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks ended firmly higher on Tuesday, gaining back some ground after a 680-point slide in the Dow industrials on Monday, as automakers in need of public money to survive, presented plans to return to profitability.

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks snapped back on Tuesday after General Electric (GE), a global bellwether, lifted optimism by pledging to leave its dividend intact in a fragile economy.

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Financial stocks recovered a sizable chunk of Monday’s record loss after the Federal Reserve extended several emergency measures integral to stabilizing banks during the credit crisis.

Market Snapshot

Market Overview

After Hours Report

Today’s Movers and Shakers

In Play

Market Internals

Advances/Declines

OVTI Reports Q2 $0.19 v $0.18e, R $163.9M v $166.4Me
- Guides Q3 -$0.22 to -$0.09 v $0.17e, R$80-100M v $164.4Me

MM – The Cognizant Trader


Filed in DECEMBER

Prelude To The Bell - 12.02.2008

SPY closed yesterday at 82.11 and is currently trading higher.

OIH closed yesterday at 73.14 and is currently trading higher.

GS Q4 loss may be as much as $5 eps which is five times the expectations. The deficit would be the company’s first quarterly loss since it went public in 1999, and is trading lower

MOS withdrew 2009 full year sales guidance citing lower demand, sees lower Q2 and Q3 sales, and is trading sharply lower

CBY was upgraded to hold by Citigroup and is trading sharply higher

Gapping up:

MRX +16.91%, GFI +14.50%, TS +10.99%, HMY +10.21%, AU +9.66%

Gapping down:

MFC -5.37%, GS -5.25%, MOS -5.24%, POT -4.06%, GPN -3.88%

MM – The Cognizant Trader

Filed in DECEMBER

Stocks To Keep Your Eye On - 12.02.2008

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in December lost 1.3, or 0.2 percent, to 814.5. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 9, or 0.1 percent, to 8,148.

Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp. (MRX:US) climbed 26 percent to $14. The maker of skin treatments reached an agreement allowing Impax Laboratories Inc. to license a generic version of the Solodyn acne drug, the companies said. The deal settles a patent dispute over the treatment, Medicis and Impax said.

Mosaic Co. (MOS:US) lost 8.5 percent to $23.25. The world’s largest producer of phosphates said sales volumes of the crop nutrient dropped 38 percent in the quarter ended Nov. 30 because of “soft market conditions.”

Intrepid Potash Inc. (IPI:US) the largest producer of the crop nutrient in the U.S., lost 2.6 percent to $16.10.

Tessera Technologies Inc. (TSRA:US) plunged 44 percent to $9.26. The company lost a patent-infringement ruling in its bid to strike licensing agreements with Qualcomm Inc. and other makers of chips for wireless devices.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

Watch EBS for long breakouts.
Watch BEC, PRK, CEC, CAT, OMC for short breakdowns.

ISLE Reports Q3 -$0.43 v -$0.21e, R $254M v $270.2Me

WAG Nov SSS -0.9% y/y

MMM Shares cut to sell from hold at Citi

CRMT Reports Q2 $0.33 v $0.35e, R $72.0M v $73.4Me

SPLS Reports Q3 $0.42 v $0.41e (ex items), R $6.95B v $7.03Be, SSS -8.0%

CEG Guides 2009 EPS $1.50-3.00 v $5.37e; expectations are if company stays as stand alone venture

BZH Reports Q4 -$12.32 v -$2.10e (incl items), R $712.6M v $593.4Me

SHLD Reports Q3 -$0.90 v -$0.49e (ex items), R $10.7B v $10.93Be, SSS -10.6%; increases share buyback by $500M (12.5% of market cap)

Credit Suisse cuts US equities portion of global portfolio to 5% overweight from 11%
- Raises emerging market stocks to overweight in 2009

(JP) BoJ Gov Shirakawa: Mindful of risks of additional rate cuts which could hinder money markets
- Japanese financial markets are stable relative to US and Europe.
- Decline in economic conditions less severe than it was in Asian crisis of 1997-98.

TCG.UK Reports FY08 Op Profit £365.9M v £391.1Me, Rev £8.8B v £10.44Be

TSCO.UK Reports Q3 UK SSS ex gas +2.0% v +1.6%e; maintaining strong businesses

MM – The Cognizant Trader

Filed in DECEMBER

Morning Preview - 12.02.2008

LONDON (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock futures advanced on Tuesday, a day after the fourth-sharpest point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the key index was created in 1896.

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) - Stocks expected to move significantly in trading on Tuesday include Boeing, Goldman Sachs, Palm, Sears Holdings, Titan Pharma, UAL and Zoltek.

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Tuesday as investors followed Monday’s market tumble with a search for beaten-down shares, and hopes for an auto industry bailout helped temper concerns over the deepening recession.

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - A day after Wall Street suffered its worst slide since early October, shares of General Motors (GM) rose 11.1 percent to $5.10 before the bell, while Ford (F) climbed 6.3 percent to $2.71.

Pre-market Indications

Earnings

Earnings Guidance

Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

Economic Numbers

Economic Preview/Calendar

IPOs

Splits

MM – The Cognizant Trader

Filed in DECEMBER

After The Close - 12.01.2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks stumbled on Monday, with the Dow industrials sliding nearly 680 points, as economic reports from around the world compounded anxiety about a global recession.

NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - U.S stocks stayed near session lows on Monday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the U.S. economy remained under considerable stress.

NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The Fed chief also said the scope for Fed interest rate reductions to aid growth was limited at this point. His comments came in a speech on the economy in Texas.

Market Snapshot

Market Overview

After Hours Report

Today’s Movers and Shakers

In Play

Market Internals

Advances/Declines

LM Provides Money Market Fund Update and Announces Enhancements to Debt Covenants

PALM Reports prelim Q2 R$190M-$195M v $331.8Me; To cut jobs; To record a Q2 restructuring charge of $7M-$9M

SNDA Reports Q3 $0.70 v $0.55e, R $137.3M v 131.9Me

MOS Withdraws 2009 sales volume guidance for phosphates due to market condition, expects loss for Q2 in offshore business due to inventory valuation adjustments

ALTH U.S FDA Grants Pralatrexate Orphan Drug Designation For The Treatment Of Patients With Follicular Lymphoma

MM – The Cognizant Trader


Filed in DECEMBER

Prelude To The Bell - 12.01.2008

SPY closed yesterday at 90.09 and is currently trading sharply lower.

OIH closed yesterday at 86.07 and is currently trading sharply lower.

MNT is being acquired by JNJ for approximately $1.07 billon in a cash tender offer to purchase all remaining shares at $31.00

Gapping up:

ROH +5.25%, RBA +4.45%, DOW +3.40%, TD +2.07%

Gapping down:

BCS -13.60%, GFA -12.41%, VIP -10.53%, UBS -10.28%, RTP -9.24%

MM – The Cognizant Trader

Filed in DECEMBER

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